Are the tropics heating up?


  • May 30, 2014
  • /   Ron Stallcup
  • /   community-dashboard

I track hurricanes.

I've been doing it for decades and I'm pretty good at it. I have pulled together a Hurricane Guide, in one form or another, for over 20 years.

For the past few days, computer models have been hinting at a tropical system developing in the Gulf and landing in the Panhandle.

The Global Forecast System is a global computer model run by the US National Weather Service. It is run four times a day and metrologists looks for trends to factor into their forecasts. Never look at one model run for the answer.

On Thursday, the GFS model showed a landfall near Pensacola, Monday, June 9.

But there is no reason to panic. And here's why:

1. Computer models are not reliable 10 days out.

FACT: Last year, the upgraded models over-developed storm formation.

2. Storms are often shown to impact this area, and then don't.

FACT: You WANT your area targeted first, because the path often moves.

3. Storms that form during the first part of June are mostly weak.

What you really need to know

Always follow the advice and recommendations of our local Emergency Management Offices.

Both offices in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties are staffed with top-notch folks who are looking after you, even when you don’t know it. Find this year’s shelters, evacuation zones and routes, and more at their websites.

Escambia County: www.myescambia.com/beready

Santa Rosa County: www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency

The season ahead

The Atlantic Hurricane Season starts Sunday, June 1 and goes to Nov. 30.

For the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center predict between eight and 13 named storms. Another way to think about it, storm names up to Marco may be used this season. Three to six of the storms could become hurricanes including one or two major hurricanes.

Atlantic storm names with pronunciations

Arthur

Bertha

Cristobal

Dolly

Edouard

Fay

Gonzalo

Hanna

Isaias

Josephine

Kyle

Laura

Marco

Nana

Omar

Paulette

Rene

Sally

Teddy

Vicky

Wilfred

SOURCE: www.nhc.noaa.gov

2014 Hurricane Citywide Disaster Preparedness Day

May 31, 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. at Community Maritime Park.

The 2014 Hurricane Citywide Disaster Preparedness Day is free and open to the public. Emergency responders and other disaster relief personnel will be on hand to help you learn how to be prepared. For more information, contact: Henry Hawkins at (850) 232-3230 Dianne Pugh at (850) 450-3640, Darryl Hawkins at (850) 748-3138.

SOURCE: www.cityofpensacola.com

Sales Tax Holiday: 2014 Hurricane Season 

The holiday begins at 12:01 a.m. on Saturday, May 31, and ends at 11:59 p.m. on Sunday, June 8. During this holiday period, qualifying items related to hurricane preparedness are exempt from sales tax.

Qualifying Items

Selling for $10 or less: 

Reusable ice (reusable ice packs)

Selling for $20 or less:

Any portable self-powered light source

Battery-powered flashlights

Battery-powered lanterns

Gas-powered lanterns (including propane, kerosene, lamp oil, or similar fuel)

Tiki-type torches

Candles

Selling for $25 or less: 

Any gas or diesel fuel container (including LP gas and kerosene containers)

Selling for $30 or less:

Batteries, including rechargeable batteries and excluding automobile and boat batteries (listed sizes only)

AA-cell

C-cell

D-cell

6-volt

9-volt

Coolers (food-storage; nonelectrical)

Ice chests (food-storage; nonelectrical)

Self-contained first-aid kit

Selling for $50 or less:

Tarpaulins (tarps)

Visqueen, plastic sheeting, plastic drop cloths, and other flexible waterproof sheeting

Ground anchor systems.

Tie-down kits

Bungee cords

Ratchet straps

Radios (self-powered or battery-powered)

Two-way radios (self-powered or battery-powered)

Weather band radios (self-powered or battery-powered)

Selling for $750 or less: 

Portable generators that will be used to provide light, communications, or to preserve food in the event of a power outage.

SOURCE: http://dor.myflorida.com/dor/taxes/pdf/hurricanelist.pdf

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